Updated July 14, 2026 — The June inflation report is now available, replacing the preview previously published here.

The Consumer Price Index fell 0.4 percent from May after seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Prices were still 3.5 percent higher than a year earlier, showing that the cost of living remains elevated even after the monthly decline.

The underlying picture was cooler: prices excluding food and energy were unchanged for the month and rose 2.6 percent over twelve months. The figures do not settle the Federal Reserve's next decision, but they reduce the immediate pressure created by May's sharp increase. Market pricing shifted toward the Fed holding rates steady at its July 28–29 meeting.

For households, the report is a welcome change in direction rather than a return to earlier price levels. A lower inflation rate means prices are rising more slowly—or, in June's case, falling on average for the month—not that past increases have been reversed.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics ↗

Source: Reuters ↗